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Space weather can affect satellites, launch operations, and mission-critical electronics. We translate solar and geospace phenomena into actionable risk insights for your missions.
Geomagnetic storms from solar coronal mass ejections can increase satellite drag on low Earth-orbiting satellites
Intense solar flares can affect high frequency radio communication and generate solar energetic particles
Trapped charged particles in Earth's magnetosphere can cause damage to satellites and charging effects
Solar energetic particles can increase crew and passenger radiation risks at aviation altitudes
Satellites and Orbits
Geomagnetic storms and solar activity directly affect satellites in orbit. Impacts can range from small operational anomalies to significant orbit decay and mission risk.
Atmospheric Drag: Enhanced geomagnetic activity increases thermospheric density, causing low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to slow and change trajectory.
Orbit Decay & Tracking Uncertainty: Temporary drag spikes can require unplanned orbit corrections or risk collisions in crowded orbits.
Constellation-Level Impacts: Coordinated satellite constellations (e.g., Starlink) are particularly vulnerable to differential drag, causing spacing issues.
Launch and Mission Risk
Space weather is a critical factor even before satellites reach orbit. Understanding the timing and intensity of solar and geomagnetic events can prevent costly mission delays and failures.
Go/no-go launch decisions affected by SEP and geomagnetic storm risk
Misjudging “rare” solar events can lead to unplanned radiation exposure
Early orbit insertion and attitude control are particularly sensitive to drag and radiation spikes
Radiation and Electronics (SEE / SEUs)
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) originating from outside our solar system can disrupt spacecraft electronics, sensors, and communication systems. Forecasting helps mitigate operational and design risk.
Single Event Effects (SEEs): Bit flips, memory errors, or temporary outages in satellites’ electronic systems.
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs): Short-duration but high-impact radiation events, especially during solar flares and CMEs.
Operational vs. Design-Time Risk: Forecasting informs operational mitigations (e.g., safe-mode procedures) beyond design-level shielding.
Case Study: 2022 Minor Geomagnetic Storm
In February 2022, a minor geomagnetic storm occurred during the deployment of multiple Starlink satellites in LEO. While the storm was modest (Kp ~4–5), it highlighted operational vulnerabilities in large, low-orbit constellations. The storm caused 38 out of 49 newly launched Starlink satellites to de-orbit and burn up, highlighting the need for better space weather forecasting for satellite operators.
This event reinforced the critical importance of real-time drag modeling and operational alerting during launch campaigns and early orbit phases. Even relatively minor geomagnetic storms can disrupt LEO operations, underscoring the need for proactive forecasting, integrated drag management, and alert systems for large satellite constellations.
The February 2022 Starlink Atmospheric Drag Event
In early February 2022, SpaceX launched a batch of 49 Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit as part of its rapidly expanding broadband constellation. The satellites were inserted into a relatively low initial orbit, a common operational strategy that allows for early checkout while minimizing long-term debris risk. At the time of launch, space weather conditions were not considered extreme by historical standards.
Within days of deployment, however, Earth’s upper atmosphere responded to a period of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Energy deposited into the thermosphere during the disturbance caused the atmosphere to heat and expand, increasing neutral density at the altitudes occupied by the newly launched spacecraft. This effect significantly amplified aerodynamic drag acting on the satellites.
The increased drag proved consequential during this early mission phase. Many of the satellites were unable to raise their orbits quickly enough to counter the enhanced atmospheric resistance. As a result, a large fraction of the constellation experienced accelerated orbital decay, ultimately leading to the reentry and loss of up to 40 spacecraft. Importantly, this outcome was not driven by an extreme geomagnetic storm, but rather by a minor geomagnetic storm event coinciding with a particularly vulnerable orbiting altitude.
The February 2022 Starlink event underscored a critical reality for modern space operations: space weather risk is highly context-dependent. Atmospheric drag does not scale linearly with traditional space weather indices alone, and its operational impact depends strongly on orbital altitude, spacecraft configuration, propulsion capability, and timing. For missions operating at low altitudes, even modest increases in thermospheric density can rapidly overwhelm planned margins.
This case also highlighted the limitations of relying solely on generic space weather alerts or indices. While geomagnetic activity levels were broadly understood, translating those conditions into mission-specific drag risk requires expert interpretation, density modeling, and an understanding of spacecraft operations. Forecast uncertainty of even several hours can materially affect outcomes during launch and early orbit phases.
For launch providers and satellite operators, the lessons are clear. Space weather considerations must be integrated into launch timing decisions, early orbit design, and operational planning. Professional space weather forecasting, tailored to specific mission parameters rather than generic thresholds, can help identify elevated risk periods, inform go/no-go decisions, and reduce the likelihood of avoidable losses.
Ready to integrate operational space weather into your mission planning? Our team is here to provide actionable forecasts, strategic assessments, and mission-focused consulting.
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